Monte Carlo Simulation

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Monte Carlo waa magaalo ku talaal waddanka ugu yar Yurub baaxad iyo dad ahaan ee loo yaqaan Monaco. Waxay darafka hoose ee Badda Cad kaga taal France. Waxaa ku nool tiro dad ka yar 40,000 oo qof.

Haddana magaaladan, ama xaafadda Monte Carlo waxay ku caan baxday goob lagu khamaaro (Casinos & Gambling) sida Las Vegas-ta Maraykanka.

Sumcad xumadaas waxay ku kasbatay in loogu magac daro “Concept” xisaabeed loo isticmaalo majaalaad kala duwan ee aqoonta ah sida Engineering, Physics, Chemistry, Statistics iyo weliba Business-ka.

“Simulation” kuma cabbiri karo Af-Soomaali (Sorry) laakiin waa sida ugu dhow ee “Process” ama hab-dhaqanka shay loo metalo (An approximate imitation of a system or a process). Pilots-ka diyaaradaha iyo Astranouts inta aan lagu aaminin diyaarad ama dayax gacmeed waxaa lagu tababaraa wax la yiraahdo “Simulator” oo laga metalay diyaaraddii ama “Spaceship”-kii.

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Business ahaan, Monte Carlo Simulation waa habka ugu qoto dheer ee loo lafa guro marka la odorasayo khatarta (Risk) mustaqbalka marka maalgelin la sameynayo. Waxay kuu suurtagelinaysaa in aad qaadan kartid go’aanka ugu saxan oo ku dhisan dhammaan waxkasta oo dhici kara (all possible scenarios) ee khatar ama fashil ka imaan karo. Physics iyo Chemistry waxaa lagu “simulate”-gareeyaa “processes-ka” ay ka mid yihiin “Difussion” iyo “Magnetic Fluxes” iwm.

Ganacsiga Soomaalida isagu wuxuu ku dhisan yahay wax la yiraahdo, “Qar Iska-Xoornimo”. Qofku wuxuu khatarta ganacsi ogaadaa marka uu kulaylkeeda taabto. Ganacsiyo badan waxay u burburaan ama hanti badan loo gubaa si aan ka fiirsi lahayn!

Xitaa haddii “Scenario and Sensitivity Analysis” la sameyn lahaa oo lagu barto Finance 101, wax badan baa badbaadi lahaa. Waxaad arkaysaa umad badan oo lacag melageed galay la ordaya.

Dhinac kale haddii aad ka eegtid hab dhaqanka Soomaalida ee ganacsiga waxay ku sifoobayaan “Loss Averse” oo haddii faa’iidada ganacsigu hal mar hoos u dhacdo isaga oo aan aad taxliilin xagee looga yimi, baa laga yaabaa in uu ka cararo!

Waddanka waxaa yaal hanti badan, laakiin weli ma helin maareyntii ay u baahnayd.

Waxaad la yaabaysaa Jaamacadaha ka jira waddanka waxaa ugu badan ay dhigaan wax ay ugu yeeraan “BBA”, haddana waxaa ugu liita waddanka waa sida ganacsi loo maamulo, maareeyo, ama wax loo maalgashado!

Risk – weli kuma lihin eray u dhigma Af-Soomaali – ogaalkay. “Danger” baynu khatar u naqaan.

Risk – waa saameynta ay yeelan karto in aadan hayn xog buuxa (The effect of uncertainty). Waxay saamayntu noqon kartaa “positive” ama “negative”.

W/Q: Dr-Mohamoud A. Mohamoud

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